[] Plenty of independent voters felt off put by Trump-aligned Republican candidates. [80] Vance said, "We really need people who are solving the big problems. The table below lists important dates throughout the 2022 congressional election cycle, including filing deadlines and primary dates. It's worth noting that these forecasts are built on probable outcomes and their predictive power depends on how good the underlying data are. !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;rUnited States Senate elections, 2024 - Ballotpedia In 2018, the last U.S. Senate race in the state before this one, Rick Scott (R) defeated incumbent Sen. Bill Nelson (D) by 0.2 percentage points. Republicans were handed a tremendous opportunity in 2022. All candidates, regardless of party affiliation, ran in a single primary. if(document.getElementsByClassName("reference").length==0) if(document.getElementById('Footnotes')!==null) document.getElementById('Footnotes').parentNode.style.display = 'none'; Communications: Alison Graves Carley Allensworth Abigail Campbell Sarah Groat Erica Shumaker Caitlin Vanden Boom The state court then issued an order establishing new candidate filing deadlines. Visit us at Ballotpedia.org, or follow us on Facebook and Twitter. In the state's 2020 Senate election, Shaheen defeated Messner by a margin of 15.6 percentage points. [44][45], Eric Schmitt (R) defeated Trudy Busch Valentine (D), Paul Venable (Constitution Party), and Jonathan Dine (L) in the general election for one of Missouri's U.S. Senate seats on November 8, 2022. At the time of the election, three independent election forecasters rated the general election as Solid Republican or Safe Republican. [90][91] Barnes said he would "fight to create opportunity in every corner of Wisconsin, bring manufacturing back, create jobs by tackling climate change, and stand up for Wisconsins family farmers. Incumbent Maggie Hassan (D) defeated Don Bolduc (R) and Jeremy Kauffman (L) in the general election for U.S. Senate in New Hampshire on November 8, 2022. The most competitive races, with predicted margins of under 5 points, are expected to be in Arizona, Georgia, and Pennsylvania. "[30] Kelly's campaign website highlighted affordable health care, providing competitive educational opportunities, increasing wages to cover the cost of living, and funding federal benefits like Social Security and Medicare as policy goals in Washington. I fixed hearts and fought for every last one of them. Six senators are retiringfive Republicans and one Democrat. Since none of the candidates received this level of support on November 8 in the general election, a runoff was scheduled to take place on December 6. Masters, a venture capitalist, became president of the Thiel Foundation in 2015 and served as COO of Thiel Capital from 2018 to 2022. Ahead of the election, Democrats held one of those seats while Republicans held five, including Pennsylvania, the only seat to change party hands. In Georgia, a general election advances to a runoff between the two top finishers if no candidate receives more than 50% of the vote. The Associated Presss midterm survey also found that independents broke in favor of Democrats by nearly 20 points. Twenty-eight senators are seeking re-election15 Republicans and 13 Democrats. [88] Johnson said that his campaign was "focused on growing our economy and creating good jobs and economic opportunity for all. In the first round in Georgia, Sen. Raphael Warnock won independents by 11 points over Republican challenger Herschel Walker, who will need to narrow that margin to prevail in the runoff. Hover over or tap a state to view the incumbent's name. In the five states where Republican senators are retiring, the primary election fields to succeed them are crowded with Donald Trump supporters who have made loyalty to the former president a cornerstone of their campaigns. The following table shows the 2020 presidential election margin of victory in percentage points for each state with a Senate election in 2022. "[35], Demings was elected to the U.S. House in 2016, representing Florida's 10th Congressional District. A federal district court judge affirmed the decision of a state-level judge to postpone the primaries for congressional and state senate offices to August 23, 2022 (the primary was originally scheduled for June 28, 2022). For more on candidates' backgrounds and key messages, see below. Democrats gained the seat in Pennsylvania after Fetterman defeated Oz, while Republicans held the seat in Wisconsin after incumbent Sen. Ron Johnson (R) defeated Mandela Barnes (D). Dennis Misigoy (L), Steven B. Grant, Tuan Nguyen, Uloma Ekpete, Edward A. Policy: Caitlin Styrsky Molly Byrne Jimmy McAllister Samuel Postell In July 2022, FiveThirtyEight's Geoffrey Skelley and Zoha Qamar wrote, "the ranked choice voting process seems likely to set up a contest between the two leading Republicans, [Murkowski and Tshibaka]". External Relations: Moira Delaney Hannah Nelson Caroline Presnell columns: 3; Busch Valentine, the heiress of the Anheuser-Busch beer company, worked as a nurse. By contrast, the GOP will likely have more opportunities for pickups, as they can expect to challenge Democratic-held Senate seats in battleground states, such as Arizona, Georgia and Nevada, each of which Biden won by fewer than 3 points.[98]. He could be the GOPs hero who turns out the full Trump coalition and expands a populist party that is reaching out to minority voters. The North Carolina State Board of Elections announced that candidate filing, having been suspended by the state supreme court in December 2021, would resume on February 24, 2022, and conclude on March 4, 2022. Democrats were not defending any Senate seats in states Donald Trump (R) won in 2020. He attributed inflation and high gas prices to Hassan and other Democrats. Hassan said Bolduc "[was] running on an extreme, anti-choice agenda and would be a clear yes vote to ban abortion in all fifty states. U.S. Rep. Ted Budd (R) defeated former state supreme court justice Cheri Beasley (D) and seven other candidates in the general election for U.S. Senate in North Carolina on November 8, 2022. Sen. Kyrsten Sinema changed her affiliation from Democrat to independent after the 2022 elections. Fetterman served as Pennsylvanias lieutenant governor. "In Senate races you have the resources to make it a real choice; it doesn't have to be a derivative choice of an affirmation of the president or not. The 2024 United States House of Representatives elections will be held on November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections, to elect representatives from all 435 congressional districts across each of the 50 U.S. states, as well as six non-voting delegates from the District of Columbia and the inhabited U.S. territories. Warnock won his 2021 special runoff election by a margin of 2 percentage points. House elections are simply more susceptible to the national electoral environment than Senate elections. Thirty-two of the 34 seats up for regular election in 2022 were last up for election in 2016. Democrats gained a net of one seat in the 2022 general elections, maintaining control of the chamber. On September 12, 2022, Kelley withdrew from the race and endorsed Tshibaka. -moz-columns: 1; Heading into Election Day, the U.S. Senate was evenly divided at 50-50 with Vice President Kamala Harris (D) casting tie-breaking votes, giving Democrats an effective majority. Before his election to the Senate, Johnson worked as the chief executive officer for a specialty plastics company and as an accountant at Jostens. Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen will likely face a serious challenge in 2024, but she'll get to run on more favorable terrain compared to the last time she was on the ballot. Bolduc spent $1.9 million. Among Democrats, you have to go back to Kennedy to find a Democrat who actually gained Senate seats in his first midterm. Two special elections also took place on November 8, 2022. This race was Ozs first run for political office. See also Class II Senators (Up for Re-election in 2020) by State. Georgia and Arizona had seats up for election in 2022 that were up for special election in 2020. There are 35 seats up in 2022 - including a special election in Oklahoma - of which 21 are held by the GOP. Laxalt was the Republican gubernatorial nominee in 2018. Warnock defeated Loeffler in the runoff election, becoming the first Democrat to represent Georgia in the U.S. Senate since 2005. The outcomes of the 6-8 contests that will most likely determine control of the U.S. Senate in the next Congress will depend to a large extent on the individual candidates and their campaigns. !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;rUnited States Congress elections, 2024 - Ballotpedia "It's not just a referendum on Biden," insists Celinda Lake, a Democratic pollster who worked for the President during the campaign. Warnock explained his decision to work with Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX), saying, There is a road that runs through our humanitythat is larger than politics, bigger than partisan bickering, certainly bigger than raceand my job as a legislator, and our job as citizens, is to find our way to that road that connects us to one anotherso that every child can have access to a good, quality education, so that everybody can have affordable health careOur job is to build out that road![41] As of November 2022, Warnocks campaign had raised more than $123 million. It really does come down to the swing voters. The absolute fealty to Trump is only part of the change this class of candidates would herald. No candidates. Warnock and Kelly (both Democrats) did not assume office until 2021 . As of June 2023, there has been one special election for U.S. Senate scheduled for the 117th Congress. "[20] Murkowski also highlighted her support for energy development in the state and said her vote for the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act had already brought billions to Alaska. If the chief magistrate is unpopular, the party controlling the White House always loses ground, sometimes dramatically. The table below presents the results of special elections to Congress from 1986 to 2012. There was no more eye-popping spread than in New Hampshire, though. Sen. Roy Blunt (R), who first took office in 2011, did not seek re-election.[46]. Three other races, in North Carolina, Nevada, and New Hampshire, are also expected to be closely contested. So a candidate who underperforms by even 2 or 3 percentage points let alone 5, 10 or more points will often cost their party the election. "[23], In February 2021, Murkowski voted to convict then-President Donald Trump (R) after the U.S. House impeached him over the events surrounding the January 6 breach of the Capitol.Cite error: Closing missing for [ tag In June 2021, Trump endorsed Tshibaka. As such, the partisan makeup of those Senate seats can more strongly influence the electoral chances of the two parties. Sen. Ron Johnson promised Wisconsin voters in 2016 that he would retire; he may face an uphill climb if he breaks that promise. While in the GOP-held open seats in North Carolina and Ohio, Beasley and Ryan, respectively, outran Biden, they couldnt match the larger numbers the incumbents had that they needed, with 4 and 6 points being insufficient in the red-leaning states. In 11 states with Senate seats up for election in 2022, the seat going into the election was held by a senator of a different party than the governor. "I think Biden's numbers will very much drive the 2022 elections," says Republican consultant John Brabender. Murkowski also had the endorsements of several Democratic elected officials, including Alaska's At-Large U.S. Rep. Mary Peltola (D), Sen. Joe Manchin (D) and Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D).Cite error: Closing ] missing for [ tagCite error: Closing ] missing for [ tag[26][27]. As a result of the 2022 elections, Republicans gained a 222-213 majority in the chamber. [52], Time's Elliott said the state's Latino population would play an important role in the election's outcome. Budd was first elected to North Carolina's 13th Congressional District in 2016 and was re-elected in 2018 and 2020. Wisconsin was also one of six states with one Democratic and one Republican U.S. senator as of the 2022 U.S. Senate elections. She emphasized her support for a gas tax holiday through 2022 and said she worked to lower costs for residents. See also Class III Senators (Up for Re-election in 2022) by State. "[90], Wisconsin was one of two states that held a U.S. Senate election in 2022 with a Republican incumbent that President Joe Biden carried in the 2020 presidential election. Democrats see it as a possible pickup, with GOP Senator Pat Toomey retiring. Tech: Matt Latourelle Ryan Burch Kirsten Corrao Beth Dellea Travis Eden Tate Kamish Margaret Kearney Eric Lotto Joseph Sanchez. Joe Biden (D) won the state of Nevada by 2.4 percentage points in the 2020 presidential election. The following table lists incumbents who didn't seek re-election in 2022. Mitch McConnell (R), minority leader. Incumbent Senator Pat Toomey (R) did not seek re-election. [2] Republicans needed a net pickup of one seat to gain control. The special election will be held to fill the last two years of the six-year term that Ben Sasse (R) was elected to in 2020. In Arizona, Kelly ran ahead of Biden by 8 points. In her responses to Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey, Chesbro said, We cannot turn off the spigot on fossil fuels. Incumbent U.S. Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D) defeated former state Attorney General Adam Laxalt (R) and three others in the general election for U.S. Senate in Nevada on November 8, 2022. Steve Sisolak (D) defeated Laxalt 49.4% to 45.3% in the general election. The AP VoteCast survey shows a nearly 10 percent gap in favor of Democrats.[98]. -moz-columns: 3; During that time, special elections were called for 23 seats vacated by Democrats and 44 vacated by Republicans. There was also a special election to fill the . Burr and Toomey did not seek re-election. Looking ahead to 2022, its less likely well see the Senate and House move in different directions, as Republicans have only two Biden-won Senate seats to defend, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, which are states Biden won by less than 2 points, meaning Democrats have little in the way of easy pickings. columns: 1; @media screen and (max-width: 892px) { Sen. Mark Kelly (D) Kelly, 57, will face the ballot less than two years after Arizonans first sent him to represent the Grand Canyon State in the Senate. Ten of the 11 U.S. House members not seeking re-electiontwo Republicans and eight Democratsare running for the U.S. Senate, while oneRep. Trump won the state over Hillary Clinton (D) in 2016 by 1.2 percentage points. Before taking office, Cortez Masto served as Nevadas attorney general from 2007 to 2015. @media screen and (max-width: 892px) { That, too, would reduce the odds of 2022 Republican tsunami.[98]. He also said that he was a "proven Conservative [who will] take the fight to the Senate and save our values, our culture, and our country. Though the numbers differ slightly between Navigators finding and exit polls, the same 17-percent gender gap shows up: Independent men supported Republicans slightly more than Democrats, but independent women backed Democrats by a much bigger margin. These results are unusual for a midterm election: Coming into the 2022 election, the presidents party had lost Senate seats in 13 of the last 19 midterm elections, with an average loss of roughly five seats. Doctors fix big things. Four senators up in '24 facing friendlier state electorates 2022 Senate Election Interactive Map - 270toWin [53], Laxalt succeeded Cortez Masto as state attorney general, serving from 2015 to 2019. As of October 19, 2022, Hassan spent $36.7 million. None of the three Democratic senators in states that then-President Donald Trump won in 2020 is on the ballot this fall, which leaves the battlefield centered overwhelmingly on terrain Biden captured. Six of the top GOP candidates vying to replace him have rejected it. Democrats have an effective majority in the Senate, with each party holding 50 seats and Vice President Kamala Harris (D) serving as the tie-breaking vote. 2022 California State Senate election - Wikipedia Ron Johnsons (R-Wis.) and John Thunes (R-S.D.) Senator. The general election was on November 8, 2022. Bidens best numbers came in exit polling in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, where the president's approval was at 46% in each. In that way, poor Republican candidate quality hurt other Republicans, especially with independents and moderates, as my colleague Andrew Prokop has reported. Indeed, 2020 was actually a Democratic-leaning year, with Biden winning the national popular vote by 4.5 percentage points. Lisa Murkowski's father, Frank Murkowski (R), was a senator from 1981 to 2002, when he resigned to become governor of Alaska. Hover over a state for more information. Incumbent: Democrat Sherrod Brown. [38][39][40], Warnock served as the senior pastor of Ebenezer Baptist Church, where Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. also served as pastor. In 2020, Kelly defeated incumbent Sen. Martha McSally (R) in a special election 51.2% to 48.8%. Too often neighbors and families just stop talking to each other, and the politicians in Washington continue to divide us even further," she said. In 2018, incumbent Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) defeated Leah Vukmir (R), 55% to 45%. A total of 468 seats in the U.S. Congress (33 Senate seats and all 435 House seats) are up for election on November 5, 2024. See also Class I Senators by Senator's Last Name. United States Congress elections, 2022 - Ballotpedia When Are US Senators Next Up for Reelection? | Snopes.com All twenty-eight incumbents who ran for re-election won. Pat Toomey, Penn. City elections in San Francisco, California (2022) - Ballotpedia [58][59], Laxalt focused on economic issues and said Cortez Masto's support for President Biden's economic initiatives contributed to the rise in inflation. The U.S. Senate has 51 Democrats (including three independents) and 49 Republicans. 2024 United States House of Representatives elections The Cook Political Reports Jessica Taylor said demographic shifts were one reason for the state's competitiveness. Conviction requires a two-thirds vote of senators present.[97]. In many cases, the presidents party flipped seats in states the president had carried handily two years earlier. Prior to serving in the U.S. House, Budd worked as an investment analyst and owner of a gun range and store. Before her time in office, Demings worked in law enforcement for nearly three decades. The 10 Senate seats most likely to flip in 2024 | CNN Politics For more information about which endorsements Ballotpedia defines as noteworthy. That U.S. Senate seat was also up for regular election in 2022. In the 2016 election, Trump carried Wisconsin with 47.2% of the vote to Hillary Clinton's (D) 46.5%. In Georgia, the Republican Senate candidate Herschel Walker underperformed Gov. We need to get control of our border. This was the first time since 1914 that no Senate incumbent who ran lost re-election.[6]. Brown is the only Democrat to win a . United States Senate elections, 2022 - Ballotpedia In 2016, Hassan defeated Ayotte by 0.1 percentage points. Republican. The filing deadline was March 11, 2022. Moreover, Senate elections are statewide contests where incumbents have sometimes had a larger edge than their House counterparts, in part because a distinct personal brand can still somewhat override trends running against the incumbents party. Chesbro, a retired educator, highlighted her support for renewable energy. "[87] Fetterman had a stroke on May 15, 2022. -webkit-columns: 3; Roughly half a dozen Republicans are vying for the GOP . As findings like these are revealed, they may add to the consternation of some Republicans who in recent days have blamed Mr. Trump for the partys poor performance. Democrat John Fetterman won independents by a whopping 18-point margin over Republican Mehmet Oz, who was consistently unpopular with voters. Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose (R), in response to a federal court order, directed that the primary for state legislative offices be held on August 2, 2022. Ozs campaign points to Fettermans 10-minute speeches and refusal to take reporter or audience questions afterward in an attempt to cast doubt on Fettermans health. In six of seven key Senate races, the Democratic nominee won over those who somewhat disapproved of Biden. Democrats managed this despite President Bidens mediocre approval rating and the tendency for voters to sour on the presidents party in midterms. The table below lists changes made to election dates and deadlines in the 2022 election cycle. In 2016, Burr defeated Deborah Ross (D), 51% to 45%. (Sen. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska upsets the right wing but is a reliable vote to organize the Senate, and the GOP will support her.) -moz-columns: 3; Hillary Clinton (D) won the state in the 2016 presidential election by 0.3 percentage points. Recruitment of stellar candidates with compelling biographies is crucial to success in states where the Republicans are vulnerable, which is why so much attention will focus on the Republican primaries, especially in Missouri and Ohio.[98]. Among women, inflation was the top concern for 46 percent of respondents, while abortion was close behind at 34 percent. [66] In 2020, Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.) spent $19 million on her re-election bid, and challenger Bryant Messner (R) spent $7 million. The following map shows each state with a Republican battleground primary for U.S. Senate in 2022. Minor party, independent, and write-in candidates included Barry Rubinson (Independent American Party), Neil Scott (Libertarian), and Barry Lindemann (Independent). Of the seven Republican senators who voted guilty, three held seats up for elections in 2022: Richard Burr, N.C. The largest margin came in Pennsylvania, which (so far) has been the only Senate seat to change hands. [49] Based on pre-general election reports filed with the Federal Election Commission (FEC), Busch Valentine cumulatively raised $12.0 million and spent $11.7 million. Vermont had one Democratic senator and one independent senator who caucused with Democrats, so three states with seats up for election had senators in different caucuses: Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Not all eight of those points can necessarily be attributed to the MAGA penalty. ]
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